The Myth of Modi’s as an Economic Manager
The Myth of Modi’s as an Economic Manager:
Taking 4 fastest growing states, out the Planning Commission data on GSDP as on 15-03-2012, we have the following table:
I draw your attention to the following simple points taking into account that Shri Narendra Modi took over as Chief Minister of Gujarat in October, 2001 and the effect of his policies on the growth of Gujarat would show up as ACCELERATION in growth after he took over. Fair enough?
- Of the 4 large states listed here, Gujarat had the highest growth rate in the period 1995 to 2002. In other words, when Shri Modi took over Gujarat in 2001, he inherited the fastest growing state among the 4 listed here. The Gujarat growth rate then was 6.45% compared with 4.97% in Maharashtra and 5.54% in Tamil Nadu. Among the larger States, Gujarat was the fastest growing state BEFORE Shri Modi’s time. That nails many a lie.
- After Shri Modi took over, the growth rate in Gujarat accelerated from an average of 6.45% to 10.08% as shown in the above table. Shri Modi did well. But by how much? In the 10 year period, Shri Modi was able to take the growth rate up by 1.56 times; that is to say from 6.45% to 10.08%; – a good performance but not the best.
- In the same 10 year period that Shri Modi reigned over Gujarat, a variety of Govts in Maharashtra accelerated its growth rate from 5.54% to 10.27% – that is by a factor 2.16 times. Also note, Maharashtra was growing more slowly than Gujarat in the period 1995-2002 but had overtaken Gujarat in the period 2005-2012. Maharashtra thus did far better than Gujarat. Why isn’t Maharashtra mentioned by those who tout Gujarat’s performance?
- Coming to Tamil Nadu, it was way behind Gujarat in growth rate in 1995-2002 clocking 5.54 against Gujarat’s 6.45. However, after 10 years of Modi rule in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu was ahead of Gujarat clocking a growth rate of 10.27% having succeeded in accelerating it by a factor of 1.85 times compared to Gujarat at 1.56 times only.
- In terms of acceleration, Bihar did the best, successfully stepping up its growth rate from 4.94% to 11.42% that is to say by a factor over 2.31. Bihar figures may suffer from a low base but the effort required to accelerate is far more challenging than in growing a already well developed state like Gujarat.
Now, since the media is expected to extol Shri Modi’s miracle in Gujarat, may I ask why the claims of Bihar, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, who have done far better than Gujarat, should be ignored?
Where is the acceleration in Gujarat’s growth rate to show it has done better under Modi when compared to similar acceleration in the growth rate of other states? Rather than give Shri Modi the credit for Gujarat, should the credit not go to general economic reforms that accelerated the growth rates for all states?